United Nations Pulls Hockey Stick from Climate Report

CCEP_report_cover
United Nations Climate Change Science Compendium - click for PDF

WUWT readers may recall that Steve McIntyre’s Climate Audit blog discovery of  UNEP’s use of a Wikipedia “hockey Stick” graphic by “Hanno”, was the subject of last week’s blog postings.

The Yamal data hockey stick  controversy overshadowed it, and much of the focus has been there recently.

The discovery of a Wikipedia graphic in the UNEP Climate Change Science Compendium must have been embarrassing as  it shows the sort of sloppy science that is going into “official” publications.

In this case, the United Nations simply grabbed an image from Wikipedia that supported the view they wanted to sell. The problem with the graph in the upper right of page 5 of the UNEP report is that it itself has not been peer reviewed nor has it originated from a peer reviewed publication, having its inception at Wikipedia.

And then there’s the problem of the citation as  “Hanno 2009” who (up until this story broke) was an anonymous Wikipedia contributor.

Yet UNEP cited the graph as if it was a published and peer reviewed work as “Hanno 2009″.

UNEP_report_page5
UNEP report original page5 - click for larger image

Here’s my screencap of the page from the UNEP Climate Change Science Compendium report from last week

In this case, the United Nations simply grabbed an image from Wikipedia that supported the view they wanted to sell.

The hockey stick, based on tree ring proxies has met an inconveniently timed death it seems.

It appears now that somebody at the United Nations must have gotten the message from blogland, becuase there has been a change in the graphics on page 5.

Below is page 5 as it appears in the UNEP Climate Change Science Compendium today:

It’s gone. It has been replaced with the familiar GISS land-ocean record, not quite a hockey stick, but close enough.

UNEP report page5 Revision 2 - click for larger image
UNEP report page5 Revision 2 - click for larger image

You can see the GISS graph from the GISTEMP web page right here, oddly the UN used the 2005 version (citing Hansen et al 2005)  rather than the 2009 version of the graph, seen below. Might it be that pesky downturn at the end of the graph? Or maybe they are just Google challenged?

It sure would be nice if such publications could display animated GIFS, for example this one showing two different vintages of GISS data:

Click if not blinking
Click if not blinking

Maybe climate blogs can convince the UN to change their graph yet again.

Thanks to sharp eyed WUWT reader Lawrie (of Sydney Australia) for pointing out the change made to the UNEP document.


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October 5, 2009 11:27 pm

“It sure would be nice if such publications could display animated GIFS, for example this one showing two different vintages of GISS data”
That would be Harry Potter material, for dead-tree journals!
I think that the Interbebby thingy has surpassed even Harry……

Paul Vaughan
October 5, 2009 11:36 pm

For comparison with the new UN graph:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/aa_yoy_diff_sq.png

October 5, 2009 11:38 pm

The real fun will start, when McIntyre digs into raw data of modern HadCRUT dataset. Should not be raw data for GISTEM and HadCRUT + methodology available just as tree ring proxies?

Christopher Hanley
October 5, 2009 11:42 pm

This is a shame.
The hockey stick, already an established cultural icon, is now entering folklore:
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/warming_tanked/#commentsmore
But why stop at 1000 years?
There’s plenty more tidying up for ‘the team’ to get on with:
http://www.globalwarminghoax.com/e107_images/newspost_images/dnc49xz_66cjkz54fh_b.png

October 5, 2009 11:44 pm

It’s silently gone. Those who were able to separate justified results from nonsense aren’t credited with their contributions. But thank God, at least one wrong graph is gone.
Thousands of them are still waiting. And when thousands of wrong graphs are also removed, it will still not be the end of the movement because the movement is not really about any graphs, neither correct nor fake ones.

oakwood
October 6, 2009 12:00 am

Very typical. IPCC represents THE scientific concensus – except for the intrumental temperature graph. IPCC uses CRU, but most AGW-faithful (including Gore) prefer GISS, showing 2005 as the warmest year instead of 1998. And yes, the graph always stops at the peak, ignoring the politically incorrect downturn.
As always, this website always brightens the start of my day.

Warren Z
October 6, 2009 12:51 am

The IPCC and Gore should give back their peace prize.

Bill Hunter
October 6, 2009 12:51 am

oakwood (00:00:33) : As always, this website always brightens the start of my day.
hear hear!

P Gosselin
October 6, 2009 1:13 am

Why don’t they show a graph of the last 1000 years? It would be really interesting to know what their view of the last millenium really is. And why don’t they show a graph of the last 250 years? Why not the last 5000 years? Or 20,000 years?
Obviously it is very important for them to select a convenient start date for their graphs.
Their case is extremely precarious just on that point alone.

October 6, 2009 1:16 am

Imagine how much would pass under the bridge if it wasn’t for the efforts of the likes of a certain A Watts and S McIntyre. Alarmists down-under frequently posit that a nobel prize awaits those who disprove the current consensus. By my reckoning both you guys are winners, several time over. KUTGW!

Thomas J. Arnold.
October 6, 2009 1:28 am

How refreshing! A little UN honesty, there is a long way to go, say to providing total objectivity and the conflicting evidence side by side in the their ‘compendiums’/ propaganda sheets.

Chris Schoneveld
October 6, 2009 1:49 am

oakwood (00:00:33) : “As always, this website always brightens the start of my day.”
I also start the day with WUWT, but, unlike you, I always get depressed with the realisation that its impact on AGW proponents and, in particular, politicians is absolutely zilch.

Richard
October 6, 2009 1:50 am

The timeline in the first two graphs is different. The first spans a 1,010 years and the other just 130 years.
The “Hanno” graph clearly shows that, except for the past 50 to 100 years, the temperatures are more or less stable. This is clearly in line with the IPCC message that CO2 has upset things and things are not “normal” today.
When we look at the 10,000 year history of temperatures, reconstructed from the very reliable GISP2 ice core data however, the current warm period seems very normal, though a little cooler than, most of the past 10,000 years.
Maybe you should post this graph also to put todays temperatures in context. (preferably if you can get a larger version of it)

redneck
October 6, 2009 2:11 am

“It’s gone. It has been replaced with the familiar GISS land-ocean record, not quite a hickey stick, but close enough.”
I’m not really familiar with a “hickey stick”

Phillip Bratby
October 6, 2009 2:30 am

The original Hanno graph was not peer reviewed. Can it be claimed that the GISS graph has been peer reviewed? It seems to me that both the GISS and HADCRU graphs have not gone through an independent review process of any kind. Has anybody done any replication of the graphs (I know the CRU data is top secret, or was before it was lost)?

Patrick Davis
October 6, 2009 3:27 am

“Chris Schoneveld (01:49:09) :
oakwood (00:00:33) : “As always, this website always brightens the start of my day.”
I also start the day with WUWT, but, unlike you, I always get depressed with the realisation that its impact on AGW proponents and, in particular, politicians is absolutely zilch.”
My centiments exactly. And I don’t see “voter power” working to correct this situation, only civil unrest.

RR Kampen
October 6, 2009 3:35 am

Re: Richard (01:50:30) :
“When we look at the 10,000 year history of temperatures, reconstructed from the very reliable GISP2 ice core data however, the current warm period seems very normal, though a little cooler than, most of the past 10,000 years.”
At that station, maybe. How can this graph represent global temperature?

SOYLENT GREEN
October 6, 2009 3:37 am

“These aren’t the droids you’re looking for. He can go about his business. Move along.”

Barry Foster
October 6, 2009 3:46 am

I echo MarcH. What people like McIntyre and Watts do is to inform people of the downright lies that are going on. I emailed D’Aleo at Icecap the other day to keep up the good work. Imagine what realclimate would get away with if it weren’t for these good people! I’ve managed to educate some people myself on what realclimate actually is and who is backing it.

AnonyMoose
October 6, 2009 4:04 am

They also altered the graph in the lower left, removing the Wikipedia credit to Rhode 2009.

Mike M
October 6, 2009 4:14 am
Alan the Brit
October 6, 2009 4:30 am

At least it’s something although I suspect it is merely more slight of hand to avoid embarrassing claims against their report. Have they apologised for the apparent “error”, have they even acknowledged it, I think not.
As to consensus, slightly OT but related to the alleged “scientific consensus” & how 2,500 scientists cannot be wrong. I was putting somebody right a little while ago, & I pointed out that apart from some musings from ancient Greece, until the 16th C with Copernicus, & the 17th C with Galileo, the general scientific consensus of the IPCC equivalent world leading scientific authority (the Holy Roman Catholic Church), was that the Earth was flat & that the sun, stars & planets revolved around us. We now know this to be untrue. Up until the late 18th C & early to mid 19th C, the general scientific & medical consensus, was that blood letting was the order of the day in curing all manner of ailments, & that this blood letting ranged from applying leeches to various parts of the body, to cutting across main arteries, resulting in frequent deaths! We now know this to be untrue. Towards the end of the 19th C, Lord Kelvin (Britian’s leading scientist) pronounced that there was nothing left to discover in science any more, only greater & more accurate measurement. We now know this to be untrue. For almost 350 years, science was dominated by Newtonian physics, until a young smart alec German upstart scientist called Bert Onestone, announced his theory of relativity to great outcry & synicism & disbelief from the scientific consensus, turning Newtonian physics on its head & inside out. It was claimed he was wrong, we now know this theory to be true – probably! In the early 20th C, Alfred Wegener announced his theory of continental drift, evetually leading to plate tectonic theory later that century, he was ridiculed & insulted for his “ridculous” & “fanciful” opinions by the scientific consensus, & his theory dismissed. We now know this to be true! I think he got the point I was making about “scientific consensus” & its uttter meaningless relevance!

Steve M.
October 6, 2009 4:30 am

It’s gone. It has been replaced with the familiar GISS land-ocean record, not quite a hickey stick, but close enough.
A hickey stick? 🙂 I’m getting a 404 http error for the blink graph.

October 6, 2009 4:40 am

I worked for the UN for about 16 months as a translator. Their pay was good (it amounted to about 10 times the average rate in my industry), and it was exempt from taxation!
Nevertheless, I quit in disgust. The language they use in the UN is inhumanly perverse; it’s not even “bureaucratic” — it’s something indescribable. And the people you have to work with… “corrupt” and “illiterate” don’t cut it. “Reptile scum of the Earth” would do better.
To expect any kind of factual truth to come out from the United Nations is as naive as reading some uncharted depths of integrity and nobility in Putin’s eyes. They understand only two things, money and power. What do they care about science that doesn’t pay under the table?

DaveF
October 6, 2009 4:43 am

Chris Schoneveld 01:49:09:
“I also start the day with WUWT, but, unlike you, I always get depressed with the realisation that its impact….is absolutely zilch.”
Patience, Chris, it’s coming, it’s coming.

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